Вместо предисловия, Док, конвертер рук на сайте не понимает ни ПТ формат, ни копирования из Эксплорера, хотя в еще майских постах вы обещали заняться вопросом. Базу Европокера я постоянно очищаю, что-бы не тормозило, так что выкладываю как есть. Если я чего-то не знаю - подскажи!


Теперь по сути - 10 НЛ - набил штуку зелени, 34ББ /100 рук.
ПТ показывает как Тайт агрессив/агрессив
Перешел на 25 НЛ. - В первые два дня набил 100 баков. А дальше.... короче отыграл 7000 рук - + 2.5 ББ/ 100 рук.

Как яркий пример -80$ за последние 3 дня и 1500 рук:

Поступил, как считаю, логично: Отсортировал руки по убыточности, т.к именно эти руки и сформировали мой проигрыш, а не смешные цифры ПТ, показывающего что я выигрываю 80% АА, на самом деле оказавшимся самой убыточной рукой. Нижний порог - 5 долларов, всего 9 рук...

Вот они: Я Olaf80, на столы захожу с половиной Байина - 12.5 долларов..


Если кто-то заметил серьезную ошибку с моей стороны, пожалуйста, критикуйте, буду рад......


1) -5$

Seat 1: aaron7945 ($7.05 in chips)
Seat 2: Olaf80. [ KS,KC ] ($12.00 in chips)
Seat 3: jcdus ($15.40 in chips)
Seat 4: werder2225 ($32.40 in chips)
Seat 5: CashProtocol ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 6: SlyEP ($25.40 in chips)
Seat 7: marcomarie ($28.85 in chips)
Seat 9: morski pas ($19.45 in chips)
Seat 10: anewparadigm ($26.85 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Olaf80. posts blind ($0.15), jcdus posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
werder2225 calls $0.25, CashProtocol folds, SlyEP folds, marcomarie folds, morski pas folds, anewparadigm folds, aaron7945 folds, Olaf80. bets $1.20, jcdus folds, werder2225 calls $1.10.

FLOP [board cards 6S,8C,AH ]
Olaf80. bets $1.50, werder2225 calls $1.50.

TURN [board cards 6S,8C,AH,QC ]
Olaf80. checks, werder2225 checks.

RIVER [board cards 6S,8C,AH,QC,10H ]
Olaf80. bets $2, werder2225 bets $10, Olaf80. folds.



2) Этот же стол, пару минут спустя -7$

Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,250,975,946
Table Puntarenas, 12 Nov 2006 4:24 PM ET

Seat 1: BlueBear.DK ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Olaf80. [ KD,KC ] ($7.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Digimortal x ($29.30 in chips)
Seat 5: CashProtocol ($22.65 in chips)
Seat 6: SlyEP ($25.30 in chips)
Seat 8: betforset ($20.25 in chips)
Seat 10: anewparadigm ($27.15 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
SlyEP posts blind ($0.15), betforset posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
anewparadigm folds, BlueBear.DK calls $0.25, Olaf80. bets $1.50, Digimortal x calls $1.50, CashProtocol folds, SlyEP folds, betforset folds, BlueBear.DK bets $2.50, Olaf80. bets $5.55 and is all-in, Digimortal x calls $5.55, BlueBear.DK bets $8.60, Digimortal x calls $4.30.

FLOP [board cards JD,7S,10H ]
BlueBear.DK bets $12.90 and is all-in, Digimortal x calls $12.90.

TURN [board cards JD,7S,10H,10S ]

RIVER [board cards JD,7S,10H,10S,6H ]

SHOWDOWN
BlueBear.DK shows [ AH,AC ]
Olaf80. shows [ KD,KC ]
Digimortal x shows [ QS,QH ]
BlueBear.DK wins $55.45.



3) Шанс противника 90% на 10% в мою пользу: -8.70

Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,248,599,625
Table Buenos Aires, 11 Nov 2006 10:22 PM ET

Seat 1: bobbycool1 ($8.70 in chips)
Seat 2: BatemanPat ($34.40 in chips)
Seat 3: Olaf80. [ KD,6D ] ($12.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Lalalala2 ($25.35 in chips)
Seat 5: DarPhoenix ($16.80 in chips)
Seat 6: udcvar ($10.00 in chips)
Seat 7: _Kall_ ($5.35 in chips)
Seat 8: x Miss.A ($12.10 in chips)
Seat 9: blairaldo x ($24.10 in chips)
Seat 10: AARDVARK0 ($23.40 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
BatemanPat posts blind ($0.15), Olaf80. posts blind ($0.25), _Kall_ posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
Lalalala2 folds, DarPhoenix folds, udcvar folds, _Kall_ checks, x Miss.A folds, blairaldo x folds, AARDVARK0 folds, bobbycool1 calls $0.25, BatemanPat folds, Olaf80. checks.

FLOP [board cards 6S,3D,9D ]
Olaf80. checks, _Kall_ checks, bobbycool1 bets $4, Olaf80. bets $12.25 and is all-in, _Kall_ folds, bobbycool1 calls $4.45 and is all-in.

TURN [board cards 6S,3D,9D,7S ]

RIVER [board cards 6S,3D,9D,7S,8C ]

SHOWDOWN
Olaf80. shows [ KD,6D ]
bobbycool1 shows [ 5C,6C ]
bobbycool1 wins $17.30, Olaf80. wins $3.80.



4) 80 на 20 в мою пользу на префлопе.... -9.60$

Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,244,200,928
Table Concord, 10 Nov 2006 7:54 PM ET

Seat 1: gevat81 ($22.25 in chips)
Seat 2: PokerParano ($24.60 in chips)
Seat 3: AbleD ($14.75 in chips)
Seat 4: emceeanders ($16.50 in chips)
Seat 6: cdpaul ($33.45 in chips)
Seat 7: pino99 ($25.65 in chips)
Seat 8: Olaf80. [ KH,KD ] ($9.60 in chips)
Seat 9: MazMan x ($23.75 in chips)
Seat 10: MSafin20 ($34.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
gevat81 posts blind ($0.15), PokerParano posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
AbleD folds, emceeanders folds, cdpaul calls $0.25, pino99 folds, Olaf80. bets $1.25, MazMan x folds, MSafin20 folds, gevat81 folds, PokerParano folds, cdpaul calls $1.

FLOP [board cards 10C,JD,8D ]
cdpaul bets $0.50, Olaf80. bets $2.50, cdpaul bets $5, Olaf80. bets $5.85 and is all-in, cdpaul calls $2.85.

TURN [board cards 10C,JD,8D,QH ]

RIVER [board cards 10C,JD,8D,QH,JC ]

SHOWDOWN
Olaf80. shows [ KH,KD ]
cdpaul shows [ 10D,9D ]
cdpaul wins $19.10.



5) 71% на 20% на торне в мою пользу: -12$


Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,243,833,806
Table Concord, 10 Nov 2006 6:15 PM ET

Seat 1: dont PUSH ($44.20 in chips)
Seat 2: HamChoppedUp ($11.75 in chips)
Seat 3: crayontom ($3.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Olaf80. [ QS,QD ] ($15.30 in chips)
Seat 7: fire_hand x ($31.00 in chips)
Seat 8: cdpaul ($12.10 in chips)
Seat 9: daddyc ($39.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MSafin20 ($44.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Olaf80. posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
fire_hand x folds, cdpaul calls $0.25, daddyc calls $0.25, MSafin20 folds, dont PUSH calls $0.25, HamChoppedUp folds, crayontom calls $0.25, Olaf80. bets $1.30, cdpaul calls $1.30, daddyc folds, dont PUSH folds, crayontom bets $3.55 and is all-in, Olaf80. bets $4.50, cdpaul calls $4.50.

FLOP [board cards JH,5C,5H ]
Olaf80. bets $5, cdpaul bets $6.05 and is all-in, Olaf80. calls $1.05.

TURN [board cards JH,5C,5H,JS ]

RIVER [board cards JH,5C,5H,JS,10S ]

SHOWDOWN
cdpaul shows [ JC,AS ]
crayontom shows [ 4S,4C ]
Olaf80. shows [ QS,QD ]
cdpaul wins $28.


6) 91% на 9% в мою пользу на флопе: - 14 долларов


Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,252,200,959
Table Mobile, 12 Nov 2006 10:06 PM ET

Seat 1: VSK_ ($26.45 in chips)
Seat 2: lithi-san ($22.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Olaf80. [ AS,AD ] ($14.00 in chips)
Seat 4: Shadow_Aces ($26.50 in chips)
Seat 5: TibetDude ($24.60 in chips)
Seat 6: _SUBTRES_ ($20.65 in chips)
Seat 8: clarux85 ($22.20 in chips)
Seat 9: Marjan77 ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 10: betforset ($23.95 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Marjan77 posts blind ($0.15), betforset posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
VSK_ folds, lithi-san folds, Olaf80. bets $1.50, Shadow_Aces calls $1.50, TibetDude folds, _SUBTRES_ folds, clarux85 folds, Marjan77 folds, betforset folds.

FLOP [board cards 8D,QS,9S ]
Olaf80. bets $3, Shadow_Aces bets $6, Olaf80. bets $9.50 and is all-in, Shadow_Aces calls $6.50.

TURN [board cards 8D,QS,9S,QH ]

RIVER [board cards 8D,QS,9S,QH,4H ]

SHOWDOWN
Olaf80. shows [ AS,AD ]
Shadow_Aces shows [ QD,AC ]
Shadow_Aces wins $27.90.



7) 80% на 20% в мою пользу на торне: -16.70$


Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,248,746,242
Table Regina, 11 Nov 2006 11:03 PM ET

Seat 1: HpMaestro ($1.80 in chips)
Seat 2: bullpit-hun ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 3: CGobs1 ($42.30 in chips)
Seat 4: jebini1 ($14.45 in chips)
Seat 5: anewparadigm ($23.05 in chips)
Seat 6: ColinCarlos ($17.45 in chips)
Seat 7: Olaf80. [ KH,AD ] ($16.75 in chips)
Seat 8: doppingen3 ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 9: Evern ($8.90 in chips)
Seat 10: denilsson16 ($9.10 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
ColinCarlos posts blind ($0.15), Olaf80. posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
doppingen3 bets $0.50, Evern folds, denilsson16 folds, HpMaestro folds, bullpit-hun bets $1, CGobs1 folds, jebini1 folds, anewparadigm folds, ColinCarlos folds, Olaf80. calls $0.75, doppingen3 calls $0.50.

FLOP [board cards KD,QD,2C ]
Olaf80. checks, doppingen3 checks, bullpit-hun bets $3, Olaf80. calls $3, doppingen3 calls $3.

TURN [board cards KD,QD,2C,9C ]
Olaf80. checks, doppingen3 checks, bullpit-hun bets $5, Olaf80. bets $12.75 and is all-in, doppingen3 folds, bullpit-hun calls $7.75.

RIVER [board cards KD,QD,2C,9C,10D ]

SHOWDOWN
Olaf80. shows [ KH,AD ]
bullpit-hun shows [ JH,QS ]
bullpit-hun wins $37.15.


8) Первый за последние ~ 2000 рук флеш с флопа...мог стать стрейт..: -19$

Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,251,055,824
Table Puntarenas, 12 Nov 2006 4:51 PM ET

Seat 1: -Karhu- ($30.20 in chips)
Seat 2: migs81 ($23.80 in chips)
Seat 3: dejvoo ($5.80 in chips)
Seat 4: iso kivi ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 5: K9canineK9 ($38.85 in chips)
Seat 6: SlyEP ($11.00 in chips)
Seat 7: Olaf80. [ 9C,10C ] ($19.00 in chips)
Seat 8: betforset ($18.85 in chips)
Seat 9: rezsi ($25.00 in chips)
Seat 10: mymacc ($24.35 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
-Karhu- posts blind ($0.15), migs81 posts blind ($0.25), rezsi posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
dejvoo calls $0.25, iso kivi calls $0.25, K9canineK9 calls $0.25, SlyEP folds, Olaf80. calls $0.25, betforset folds, rezsi checks, mymacc folds, -Karhu- calls $0.10, migs81 checks.

FLOP [board cards JC,QC,3C ]
-Karhu- checks, migs81 checks, dejvoo checks, iso kivi checks, K9canineK9 bets $1.50, Olaf80. calls $1.50, rezsi folds, -Karhu- folds, migs81 folds, dejvoo folds, iso kivi folds.

TURN [board cards JC,QC,3C,4D ]
K9canineK9 bets $3, Olaf80. bets $6, K9canineK9 bets $34.10 and is all-in, Olaf80. calls $11.25 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards JC,QC,3C,4D,8S ]

SHOWDOWN
K9canineK9 shows [ 6C,AC ]
Olaf80. shows [ 9C,10C ]
K9canineK9 wins $58.60.

9)81% на 18% в мою пользу на торне: -23$

exas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #1,245,101,738
Table Kowloon, 10 Nov 2006 11:57 PM ET

Seat 2: MaximilianF1 ($14.10 in chips)
Seat 3: Powerplay23 ($22.55 in chips)
Seat 4: paquee ($20.15 in chips)
Seat 5: Royale-53 ($23.20 in chips)
Seat 6: kimchi_chiga ($24.35 in chips)
Seat 7: babitsh ($19.35 in chips)
Seat 8: Olaf80. [ AH,AD ] ($24.30 in chips)
Seat 9: OhNoFSM ($36.85 in chips)
Seat 10: akatsuki_6r ($41.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
babitsh posts blind ($0.15), Olaf80. posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
OhNoFSM folds, akatsuki_6r folds, MaximilianF1 folds, Powerplay23 folds, paquee folds, Royale-53 calls $0.25, kimchi_chiga calls $0.25, babitsh calls $0.10, Olaf80. bets $1.50, Royale-53 calls $1.50, kimchi_chiga calls $1.50, babitsh folds.

FLOP [board cards 4H,8S,8H ]
Olaf80. bets $3.50, Royale-53 calls $3.50, kimchi_chiga folds.

TURN [board cards 4H,8S,8H,2D ]
Olaf80. bets $10, Royale-53 calls $10.

RIVER [board cards 4H,8S,8H,2D,3H ]
Olaf80. bets $9.05 and is all-in, Royale-53 calls $7.95 and is all-in.

SHOWDOWN
Olaf80. shows [ AH,AD ]
Royale-53 shows [ 10H,JH ]
Royale-53 wins $47.90, Olaf80. wins $1.10.



Как я уже говорил, это девятка моих самых убыточных рук, где я потерял больше 5 долларов на раздаче.

Максимальный мой выигрыш за это же время с одной руки составил 12 долларов на сет по ВВ...
В итоге, я опустился на 70 долларов.

6 из этих рук были мною проиграны с шансами:
90 - 10
80 - 20
71 - 20
91 - 9
80 - 20
81- 18

За этот период у меня убыточен АА, КК, ДД..
Да, ПТ показывает 80% побед на АА, но...только тогда, когда все сбрасывают на мой рейз и я зарабатываю 0.30 - 1 доллар.

Одним словом я проиграл все АА, КК, и ДД, когда кто-либо хотел со мной играть с дерьмом типа 98с.

Я скинул 5 ДД из 7, оставив в поте пару-тройку $,поскольку на флоп УПОРНО падал А и мои конт. беты нарывались на ререйзы или колы, и наблюдал "битву титанов" которые зашли на мою ставку 5-8 ББ с А7, А9 и т.п...

Вообщем вопрос: какая математическая вероятность проиграть все 6 сдач подряд при таких раскладах в мою пользу?:
90 - 10
80 - 20
71 - 20
91 - 9
80 - 20
81- 18